My track record as an Oscar prognosticator is, to put it charitably, uneven. On the other hand, I did manage to predict the Best Picture win by Chariots of Fire a quarter-century ago. And I think there may be two similarly surprising upsets on Sunday night. For what they’re worth – which, trust me, likely isn’t much – here are my guesstimates, along with some second-guessing.
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: The Departed
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Marc Forster’s exquisitely spare yet emotionally resonant Stranger Than Fiction
ACTOR
WILL WIN: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
SHOULD WIN: Peter O’Toole (for, I freely admit, purely sentimental reasons)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Aaron Eckhart, for his ferociously funny and fearless performance as an amoral PR spinner in Thank You for Smoking
ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
SHOULD WIN: Helen Mirren
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Gretchen Mol, for her tantalizingly ambiguous portrayal of a ‘50s pin-up queen who may be innocent and knowing in The Notorious Bettie Page
SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: Alan Arkin (a.k.a. Upset No. 1) for Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Alan Arkin
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: James McAvoy, if only because he hasn’t been given sufficient credit for his shrewdly nuanced performance as the callow Scottish doctor who’s all-too-easily seduced by a gregariously psychotic Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. (It can be argued, of course, that McAvoy actually was the lead, and Whitaker was the supporting player – but, hey, that’s showbiz.)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Abigail Breslin (a.k.a. Upset No. 2) for Little Miss Sunshine
SHOULD WIN: Rinko Kikuchi for Babel
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Maggie Gyllenhaal for either World Trade Center or Stranger Than Fiction
DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
SHOULD WIN: Martin Scorsese
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Robert Altman for the deeply affecting long goodbye of A Prairie Home Companion
4 comments:
i totally agree with you on altman should have been nominated for director.
this year was a crazy year because SOO many directors deserved recognition.
but i completly agree.
i don't really see the breslin upset...but definitly see the Arkin award happening.
--RC of strangeculture.blogspot.com
I'm betting on Babel for Best picture.
Having finally just seen Letters From Iwo Jima last night, I am compelled to say it was clearly the best film of the year, and Eastwood is deserving of another win. It's too bad the inferior Million Dollar Baby won when it did--and too bad that Scorsese hasn't won before now.
I am totally with you on McAvoy. Good to see somebody else recognize that. I wonder if Forest will on Sunday night.
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